Fantasy Football Player Notes

Kelce had a "down season" by his lofty standards, but it was still a strong showing as he remained the TE1 in fantasy points per game. Kelce maintained electric marks in efficiency third in YPRR and second in FD/RR while ranking third in target share (21.2%) and second in first-read share (25.8%, per Fantasy Points Data). Kelce isn't washed and remains Patrick Mahomes' WR1.

Could Patrick Mahomes be a bargain in 2024 fantasy drafts? That will be a distinct possibility if enough fantasy managers are scared off by a disappointing 2023 campaign in which Mahomes finished QB8 in fantasy scoring. Mahomes averaged 261.4 passing yards per game last season, the fewest in his six years as the Chiefs' starting quarterback. He also hit a six-year low in yards per attempt (6.9) and touchdown rate (4.0%). Mahomes is too good to have "lost it." The easy explanation is that Mahomes simply didn't have enough pass-catching firepower. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is 34 and may have reached the slowdown phase of his career. WR Rashee Rice put up good numbers in 2023, but Rice is a non-traditional receiver who had an average depth of target of only 4.8 yards and made his living off schemed-up receptions. Kansas City has added a couple of quality receivers, signing Marquise Brown and spending a first-round pick on Xavier Worthy, so Mahomes should be back in business. We are, after all, talking about a player who's won two MVP awards, has had two 5,000-yard passing seasons and has had a 50-TD season. Mahomes is on the shortlist of the best pure passers to ever play in the NFL. Fade him at your own peril.

Pacheco settled in a strong RB2 last season (RB14), but he could have even more upside in 2024 if the team doesn't retain Jerick McKinnon. In the four games he played without McKinnon active, Pachecho averaged 20.2 touches and 100.7 total yards. He was Kansas City's workhorse, as he played at least 70% of the snaps in three of those four games. The second-year back rewarded their faith in him as he was 12th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 48 qualifying backs, he also ranked 28th in yards per route run. Pacheco had plenty of high-leverage usage last season, ranking seventh in red zone touches and third on Kansas City in red zone targets. He's a solid RB2 who could easily run hot with touchdowns and climb into the RB1 category in 2024.

We'll see how long Rice is suspended for and where his ADP settles in at, but he is likely a strong value for 2024. Every year, we have to navigate these suspension waters for some players. His ADP could also vary widely from league to league. With that in mind, I'm more likely to take the leap and select Rice in leagues where he slips down the board, or I'm looking to "play catch up some" at wide receiver, depending on how my draft has unfolded. The additions of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown to this passing attack have also muddied the waters for Rice. All of this uncertainty will make drafters wary of pressing the button, but the risk will be built into his ADP. While we can debate all of those factors, we can't debate that Rice is a supremely talented player catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In Weeks 12-18, Rice ranked 12th in target share (25.2%), 10th in YPRR (2.77) and FD/RR (0.123), and ninth in fantasy points per route run (0.60). Buy the dip.

Marquise "Hollywood" Brown had a forgettable 2023 season, struggling with inconsistent quarterback play and injuries. Despite posting impressive air yards and target share numbers, he failed to produce consistently, averaging just 7.8 points per game. However, his move to the Chiefs presents a promising opportunity to revive his career alongside Patrick Mahomes. With his speed and playmaking ability, Brown could become a fantasy WR2 in Kansas City's offense, given the potential absence of Rashee Rice.

Texas' Xavier Worthy has quickly made a name for himself with his standout speed and playmaking prowess. At 6 feet 1 inch and 172 pounds, Worthy distinguished himself early, notching 62 receptions for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns in his freshman year. He capped off his college career with over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns in his junior year, securing a 30% career dominator rating-the second highest in his class-and the youngest breakout age at 18. His abilities have drawn comparisons to DeSean Jackson, both from Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid and draft analyst Thor, underscoring his potential impact. Set to join the Chiefs as a 1st-rounder, Worthy is expected to compete for a significant role, particularly with the possibility of an expanded opportunity if teammate Rashee Rice faces a suspension.